GDrought-related vulnerability and risk assessment of groundwater resources in Belgium
Project results
Project results
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Scenario characteristics other then BUSINESS AS USUAL
Landuse changes
In dealing with drought, it is important to know accurately where impervious surfaces prevent water from infiltrating the soil but also where particular groundwater exploitation levels can be expected. In this context, present and future land-use maps for Belgium and the case study area are developed by a CA based model according to different scenarios. Work carried out in a large number of EU-funded (i.e. Archeomedes, Meadalus, MedAction, Desurvey, ...) and other (i.e. Ladamer (ESA), LADA (FAO), ...) research projects has shown that drought is a climate related phenomenon exacerbated by human activities (i.e. settlement patterns, economic activities, land occupation, production schemes, ...). It is therefore important to incorporate in any drought related analysis expected changes in the climate and weather patterns without ignoring the associated socio-economic trends and land occupation patterns (IPCC SRES, 2000). Tthe project makes use of the IPCC-SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios developed in the 4th assessment report of the IPCC. SRES (IPCC SRES, 2000) adheres to the so-called worldviews approach in which scenarios (worlds) are defined in the four quadrants of a system of axes representing the two major uncertainties (global vs. regional and environment vs. economy) that societies will confront in the future. The globally defined scenarios (worlds) described in the SRES are translated and downscaled to the Belgian situation. Results are maps that quantify developments to be expected in Belgium, and more particular in the selected study area, adhering to each of the worlds.
Through this viewer, endusers get access to the project results.
Scenario characteristics other then BUSINESS AS USUAL
Global Economy:
Strong Europe:
Regional communities:
Strong Europe:
Regional communities:
– Private initiative and individual freedom overrule
– Restricted role of the government
– Scenario with the strongest population growth and highest economic growth
– ~ high emission scenario (RCP 8.5)
– governments have a strong influence and power
– Economic activities grow, especially in the commerce and service sector
– Population grows strong because of economic immigration
– ~ low emission scenario (RCP 4.5)
– Strong focus on regional identify and therefore strong local governments
– Economic grow is slow
– Overall population decreases
– ~ medium emission scenario (RCP 6.0)
– Restricted role of the government
– Scenario with the strongest population growth and highest economic growth
– ~ high emission scenario (RCP 8.5)
– governments have a strong influence and power
– Economic activities grow, especially in the commerce and service sector
– Population grows strong because of economic immigration
– ~ low emission scenario (RCP 4.5)
– Strong focus on regional identify and therefore strong local governments
– Economic grow is slow
– Overall population decreases
– ~ medium emission scenario (RCP 6.0)
In dealing with drought, it is important to know accurately where impervious surfaces prevent water from infiltrating the soil but also where particular groundwater exploitation levels can be expected. In this context, present and future land-use maps for Belgium and the case study area are developed by a CA based model according to different scenarios. Work carried out in a large number of EU-funded (i.e. Archeomedes, Meadalus, MedAction, Desurvey, ...) and other (i.e. Ladamer (ESA), LADA (FAO), ...) research projects has shown that drought is a climate related phenomenon exacerbated by human activities (i.e. settlement patterns, economic activities, land occupation, production schemes, ...). It is therefore important to incorporate in any drought related analysis expected changes in the climate and weather patterns without ignoring the associated socio-economic trends and land occupation patterns (IPCC SRES, 2000). Tthe project makes use of the IPCC-SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios developed in the 4th assessment report of the IPCC. SRES (IPCC SRES, 2000) adheres to the so-called worldviews approach in which scenarios (worlds) are defined in the four quadrants of a system of axes representing the two major uncertainties (global vs. regional and environment vs. economy) that societies will confront in the future. The globally defined scenarios (worlds) described in the SRES are translated and downscaled to the Belgian situation. Results are maps that quantify developments to be expected in Belgium, and more particular in the selected study area, adhering to each of the worlds.
Figure: Problem statement – Factors and context for depletion of groundwater resources in Belgium
